"Mortgage Bonds are soaring higher this morning, thanks to the Fed reiterating its New Year's Resolution to purchase $500 Billion of Mortgage Backed Securities by June 2009. The announcement has led to another wild disconnect between Mortgage Bonds and Treasuries, as the 10-Year Note is trading sharply lower, while Mortgage Bonds are sharply higher.
In other news, Initial Jobless Claims were reported at 492,000, which was well below expectations that it would rise to 575,000. The Labor Department said that seasonal volatility led to the surprise drop in unemployment claims
© Copyright 2001-2008 The Mortgage Market Guide, LLC. All rights reserved
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
"Bonds prices declined yesterday afternoon and so far this morning, good news for Stocks is keeping the selling pressure on Bonds. GMAC received a $6 Billion lifeline today from the Treasury to help stave off bankruptcy or a shut down. Stocks are moving higher on the good news, which is pulling more money out of Bonds.
In other news, Consumer Confidence came in at a record low of 38.0. This time last year, Consumer Confidence was at 88.6. So there's been quite a decline during 2008.
© Copyright 2001-2008 The Mortgage Market Guide, LLC. All rights reserved.
In other news, Consumer Confidence came in at a record low of 38.0. This time last year, Consumer Confidence was at 88.6. So there's been quite a decline during 2008.
© Copyright 2001-2008 The Mortgage Market Guide, LLC. All rights reserved.
Monday, December 29, 2008
"Stocks opened higher this morning but have since reversed course, as tensions in the Middle East sent crude oil higher on concerns of supply disruption. Higher oil prices could boost Stock prices in the energy sector and may help lift the entire Stock market later today, but the rise in Middle East tensions may also help Bonds improve as traders seek a safe haven for investments.
There are no economic reports due out today, and the Bond market faces another short holiday week--with the market closing early on Wednesday and remaining closed all day Thursday in celebration of the New Year. This holiday environment creates lower trading volumes, which can cause unexpected price movements and additional volatility.
© Copyright 2001-2008 The Mortgage Market Guide, LLC. All rights reserved
There are no economic reports due out today, and the Bond market faces another short holiday week--with the market closing early on Wednesday and remaining closed all day Thursday in celebration of the New Year. This holiday environment creates lower trading volumes, which can cause unexpected price movements and additional volatility.
© Copyright 2001-2008 The Mortgage Market Guide, LLC. All rights reserved
Wednesday, December 24, 2008
"Typically bad economic news is good for Bonds. And, as Mortgage Bonds are trading higher on the heels of some Bond friendly data, that's good for rates.
Initial Jobless Claims jumped by 30,000 to 586,000 and the four-week average of continuing claims rose to 4.32 million, which is the most since December 1982. Also on the news front, Personal Spending fell 0.6% in November amid mounting job losses and economic uncertainty. While this number was bad, it was a bit better than expectations.
© Copyright 2001-2008 The Mortgage Market Guide, LLC. All rights reserved.
Initial Jobless Claims jumped by 30,000 to 586,000 and the four-week average of continuing claims rose to 4.32 million, which is the most since December 1982. Also on the news front, Personal Spending fell 0.6% in November amid mounting job losses and economic uncertainty. While this number was bad, it was a bit better than expectations.
© Copyright 2001-2008 The Mortgage Market Guide, LLC. All rights reserved.
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
"Declining home sales are in the news this morning, as the median sales price of existing homes fell more than 13% over the past year. In addition, New Home Sales came in below expectations--falling to their lowest reading in 27 years.
During times like this, it's important to remember that while inventories are high and need to come down for housing prices to stabilize, the combination of abundant inventory and low interest rates does provide a great opportunity for buyers to purchase homes below market prices and at great monthly payment rates.
Currently, Mortgage Bonds are clawing their way back, after opening lower this morning.
© Copyright 2001-2008 The Mortgage Market Guide, LLC. All rights reserved.
During times like this, it's important to remember that while inventories are high and need to come down for housing prices to stabilize, the combination of abundant inventory and low interest rates does provide a great opportunity for buyers to purchase homes below market prices and at great monthly payment rates.
Currently, Mortgage Bonds are clawing their way back, after opening lower this morning.
© Copyright 2001-2008 The Mortgage Market Guide, LLC. All rights reserved.
Monday, December 22, 2008
"Mortgage Bonds are trading lower as we kick off the short holiday week. The Bond markets will close at 2 pm Eastern Time on Wednesday and will be closed all day Thursday for Christmas. Friday will be a regular trading session.
There are no economic reports due out today. However, later this afternoon, a record $38 Billion auction of 2-year Treasury Notes could influence prices, as the market absorbs additional supply.
Currently, Mortgage Bonds are trading in a wide range between resistance and support.
© Copyright 2001-2008 The Mortgage Market Guide, LLC. All rights reserved.
There are no economic reports due out today. However, later this afternoon, a record $38 Billion auction of 2-year Treasury Notes could influence prices, as the market absorbs additional supply.
Currently, Mortgage Bonds are trading in a wide range between resistance and support.
© Copyright 2001-2008 The Mortgage Market Guide, LLC. All rights reserved.
Friday, December 19, 2008
Good Morning,
There is no economic news today.
In a speech from Bush this morning, the Auto makers will receive 17.4 billion to assist them with their intermediary capital issues. The auto makers will have until March to have a plan together regarding how they will restructure. The 17.4 Billion must be repaid, however no time line was spelled out in the speech. The loans may act as an ease for the companies to enter into chapter 11 bankruptcy.
What has this done for MBS? We have been all over the place this morning.
As stocks increase on the news, treasuries and MBS have suffered somewhat.
Many people that have been following MBS have noticed that mortgage pricing should probably be better than it is. That leads of course to the Why?
With the volatility that we've had recently for one with rates dropping significantly, prepayments - due to rates dropping, forward unmet commitments, foreclosure risk, EPO's and EDP's - Investors really don't know where to price anymore. For example, if you purchased MBS with a yield of say 1%, it is going to take some time to see those profits. If the loan pays off early - well, that was a total waste of time for the investor as they will see no gains whatsoever. The reality of gain I was told is roughly 4 years of performance.
Jay Cain - Bank of Ann Arbor
There is no economic news today.
In a speech from Bush this morning, the Auto makers will receive 17.4 billion to assist them with their intermediary capital issues. The auto makers will have until March to have a plan together regarding how they will restructure. The 17.4 Billion must be repaid, however no time line was spelled out in the speech. The loans may act as an ease for the companies to enter into chapter 11 bankruptcy.
What has this done for MBS? We have been all over the place this morning.
As stocks increase on the news, treasuries and MBS have suffered somewhat.
Many people that have been following MBS have noticed that mortgage pricing should probably be better than it is. That leads of course to the Why?
With the volatility that we've had recently for one with rates dropping significantly, prepayments - due to rates dropping, forward unmet commitments, foreclosure risk, EPO's and EDP's - Investors really don't know where to price anymore. For example, if you purchased MBS with a yield of say 1%, it is going to take some time to see those profits. If the loan pays off early - well, that was a total waste of time for the investor as they will see no gains whatsoever. The reality of gain I was told is roughly 4 years of performance.
Jay Cain - Bank of Ann Arbor
Thursday, December 18, 2008
Hmmm, any gains that we had are now gone. Rates didnt look as good this morning as they did yesterday morning. but we had a wild ride yesterday afternoon.
"After all the big Fed news from earlier this week, Bonds began the day on the quiet side as they attempt to regain some of yesterday's losses.
Meanwhile, the Job market continues to struggle. The four-week average of new Jobless Claims reached the highest level since December 1982, while the four-week average of continuing Claims is the highest since January 1983.
© Copyright 2001-2008 The Mortgage Market Guide, LLC. All rights reserved.
"After all the big Fed news from earlier this week, Bonds began the day on the quiet side as they attempt to regain some of yesterday's losses.
Meanwhile, the Job market continues to struggle. The four-week average of new Jobless Claims reached the highest level since December 1982, while the four-week average of continuing Claims is the highest since January 1983.
© Copyright 2001-2008 The Mortgage Market Guide, LLC. All rights reserved.
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
hmmm, no economic news today but the market has been going crazy. we have had 2 price increases so far this morning. but, rates are still incredible!! I am not going to post because i am anticipating more change going on today.
"The Fed lowered the Federal Funds Rate by .75% to a target range of 0% to .25%, and also lowered the Discount Rate by .75% to .50%. The statement that followed the cut said that the Fed was prepared to take aggressive steps to revive the sagging US economy.
In the past, Mortgage Bonds have reacted negatively to Fed cuts as fears of inflation come to life. But the Fed stated that inflation pressures have diminished appreciably and expects inflation to moderate further in coming quarters, hence the reason home loan rates are improving.
There are no economic reports due out today
© Copyright 2001-2008 The Mortgage Market Guide, LLC. All rights reserved.
"The Fed lowered the Federal Funds Rate by .75% to a target range of 0% to .25%, and also lowered the Discount Rate by .75% to .50%. The statement that followed the cut said that the Fed was prepared to take aggressive steps to revive the sagging US economy.
In the past, Mortgage Bonds have reacted negatively to Fed cuts as fears of inflation come to life. But the Fed stated that inflation pressures have diminished appreciably and expects inflation to moderate further in coming quarters, hence the reason home loan rates are improving.
There are no economic reports due out today
© Copyright 2001-2008 The Mortgage Market Guide, LLC. All rights reserved.
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
Rates are looking GREAT!!!!
up to 4.875% on conventional and up to 5% for FHA.
"It's Fed Day! And that means the Fed will release its interest rate decision and policy statement later this afternoon. Currently, the Fed Funds Rate stands at 1%. But, indications are that the Fed will cut by .50% or .75%.
In other news today, Consumer Prices dropped more in November than any other month on record, due in large part to falling gas and energy prices. Based on these numbers, inflation is almost non-existent and could shift thinking towards fears of deflation. Also today, housing starts for November came in at their lowest level since records began in 1959, and building permits were reported at record lows.
So far this morning, Bonds have improved, but have struggled to gain too much ground. The tame inflation numbers and the dismal housing numbers should have sparked a better reaction in Bonds, but traders are cautious ahead of a Fed Rate cut, which historically hurts Bond prices. Therefore, I recommend floating for now, but be prepared to lock this afternoon."
© Copyright 2001-2008 The Mortgage Market Guide, LLC. All rights reserved.
up to 4.875% on conventional and up to 5% for FHA.
"It's Fed Day! And that means the Fed will release its interest rate decision and policy statement later this afternoon. Currently, the Fed Funds Rate stands at 1%. But, indications are that the Fed will cut by .50% or .75%.
In other news today, Consumer Prices dropped more in November than any other month on record, due in large part to falling gas and energy prices. Based on these numbers, inflation is almost non-existent and could shift thinking towards fears of deflation. Also today, housing starts for November came in at their lowest level since records began in 1959, and building permits were reported at record lows.
So far this morning, Bonds have improved, but have struggled to gain too much ground. The tame inflation numbers and the dismal housing numbers should have sparked a better reaction in Bonds, but traders are cautious ahead of a Fed Rate cut, which historically hurts Bond prices. Therefore, I recommend floating for now, but be prepared to lock this afternoon."
© Copyright 2001-2008 The Mortgage Market Guide, LLC. All rights reserved.
Thursday, December 11, 2008
Todays Rates and Updates on the Mortgage Market
"Mortgage Bonds had a nice rally yesterday afternoon and continue to test resistance at the previous price highs for 2008. Stocks, meanwhile, are facing some uncertainty as opposition in the Senate threatens to delay or kill the emergency loan legislation for GM and Chrysler that was approved by the House last night.
In other news, Initial Jobless Claims reached their highest level in 26 years. The data shows that businesses are laying off workers at a rapid pace, as the current recession drags on.
© Copyright 2001-2008 The Mortgage Market Guide, LLC. All rights reserved.
Rates look great, FHA is around 5.375% and Conventional around 4.99%
In other news, Initial Jobless Claims reached their highest level in 26 years. The data shows that businesses are laying off workers at a rapid pace, as the current recession drags on.
© Copyright 2001-2008 The Mortgage Market Guide, LLC. All rights reserved.
Rates look great, FHA is around 5.375% and Conventional around 4.99%
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
Wouldn't This Be Amazing!!!
Fannie, Freddie May Waive Appraisals for Refinancings (Update1)
By Dawn Kopecki
Dec. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mortgage-finance companies seized by the U.S. government, are considering waiving a requirement for new appraisals on refinanced loans, their regulator said.
“If they refinance someone, rather than doing a loan mod, do they need a new appraisal if they already have the credit?” Federal Housing Finance Agency Director James Lockhart told reporters after a speech in Washington today. “That’s an issue that’s being discussed. They’re looking at it.”
Fannie and Freddie, which own or guarantee $5.3 trillion of the $12 trillion U.S. home loan market, have accelerated anti- foreclosure efforts and are now debating how to deal with delinquent borrowers who owe more than their homes are worth. The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index dropped 17.4 percent in September from a year earlier after a 16.6 percent decline in August. The gauge has fallen every month since January 2007.
“An upside down mortgage is a difficult thing to deal with,” Lockhart said. Whether the new loans would require or could even get mortgage insurance is a consideration, as well as accounting issues surrounding the valuation of the refinanced loan on the companies’ balance sheets, he said.
“That’s why it’s hard to make a decision,” Lockhart said.
Washington-based Fannie and McLean, Virginia-based Freddie accounted for 73 percent of all new mortgages in the first nine months of this year as private sources of financing contracted, Lockhart said.
A Freddie spokeswoman, Sharon McHale, didn’t have an immediate comment. Brian Faith, a Fannie spokesman, wasn’t immediately available to respond.
Mortgage Insurance
Lockhart also said today the Federal Housing Administration will likely supplant Fannie and Freddie as the largest source of new home loans as borrowers find it harder to obtain the mortgage insurance necessary to qualify for non-government financing.
FHA, a government agency that insures loans for private lenders, will probably overtake Fannie and Freddie within the next quarter, Lockhart said in his speech to the Women in Housing & Finance, a society of industry professionals.
“You will probably see in the next quarter the Fannie and Freddie lines going down and FHA coming up,” Lockhart said. “Fannie and Freddie are so dependent on mortgage insurers because they can only buy loans with 80 percent loan-to-value ratios and they aren’t able to do as much.”
FHA has taken a larger role in helping troubled homeowners refinance their mortgages partly because of the higher standards that Fannie and Freddie require of lenders to buy or guarantee their loans. Those standards have become more of an obstacle as mortgage insurers including PMI Group Inc. and Radian Group Inc. are now charging higher prices and being more selective in their coverage to curb losses stemming from a surge in foreclosures.
To contact the reporter on this story: Dawn Kopecki in Washington at dkopecki@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: December 10, 2008 15:02 EST
By Dawn Kopecki
Dec. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mortgage-finance companies seized by the U.S. government, are considering waiving a requirement for new appraisals on refinanced loans, their regulator said.
“If they refinance someone, rather than doing a loan mod, do they need a new appraisal if they already have the credit?” Federal Housing Finance Agency Director James Lockhart told reporters after a speech in Washington today. “That’s an issue that’s being discussed. They’re looking at it.”
Fannie and Freddie, which own or guarantee $5.3 trillion of the $12 trillion U.S. home loan market, have accelerated anti- foreclosure efforts and are now debating how to deal with delinquent borrowers who owe more than their homes are worth. The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index dropped 17.4 percent in September from a year earlier after a 16.6 percent decline in August. The gauge has fallen every month since January 2007.
“An upside down mortgage is a difficult thing to deal with,” Lockhart said. Whether the new loans would require or could even get mortgage insurance is a consideration, as well as accounting issues surrounding the valuation of the refinanced loan on the companies’ balance sheets, he said.
“That’s why it’s hard to make a decision,” Lockhart said.
Washington-based Fannie and McLean, Virginia-based Freddie accounted for 73 percent of all new mortgages in the first nine months of this year as private sources of financing contracted, Lockhart said.
A Freddie spokeswoman, Sharon McHale, didn’t have an immediate comment. Brian Faith, a Fannie spokesman, wasn’t immediately available to respond.
Mortgage Insurance
Lockhart also said today the Federal Housing Administration will likely supplant Fannie and Freddie as the largest source of new home loans as borrowers find it harder to obtain the mortgage insurance necessary to qualify for non-government financing.
FHA, a government agency that insures loans for private lenders, will probably overtake Fannie and Freddie within the next quarter, Lockhart said in his speech to the Women in Housing & Finance, a society of industry professionals.
“You will probably see in the next quarter the Fannie and Freddie lines going down and FHA coming up,” Lockhart said. “Fannie and Freddie are so dependent on mortgage insurers because they can only buy loans with 80 percent loan-to-value ratios and they aren’t able to do as much.”
FHA has taken a larger role in helping troubled homeowners refinance their mortgages partly because of the higher standards that Fannie and Freddie require of lenders to buy or guarantee their loans. Those standards have become more of an obstacle as mortgage insurers including PMI Group Inc. and Radian Group Inc. are now charging higher prices and being more selective in their coverage to curb losses stemming from a surge in foreclosures.
To contact the reporter on this story: Dawn Kopecki in Washington at dkopecki@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: December 10, 2008 15:02 EST
Todays Rates and Updates on the Mortgage Market
Rates are looking great! Conventional is as low as 4.99% and FHA as low as 5.375%!*OAC
"Mortgage Bonds are trading sideways in a wide range between support and resistance. There is a large $28 Billion 3-year Note auction this afternoon, which could pressure the Bond market due to added supply.
Stocks are rising today on word that Congress will approve a $15 Billon bailout to keep the Detroit 3 auto makers from seeking bankruptcy protection. Also helping Stocks are shares of energy companies, which are getting a lift from higher oil prices this week. Oil, now at $44.50 a barrel, has risen almost $4 a barrel since Friday's close.
Copyright 2001-2008 The Mortgage Market Guide, LLC. All rights reserved
Hang on for a bumpy ride! still no more news on the Famous 4.5% that the government is going to magically do. Who knows, maybe the market will do it on its own.
"Mortgage Bonds are trading sideways in a wide range between support and resistance. There is a large $28 Billion 3-year Note auction this afternoon, which could pressure the Bond market due to added supply.
Stocks are rising today on word that Congress will approve a $15 Billon bailout to keep the Detroit 3 auto makers from seeking bankruptcy protection. Also helping Stocks are shares of energy companies, which are getting a lift from higher oil prices this week. Oil, now at $44.50 a barrel, has risen almost $4 a barrel since Friday's close.
Copyright 2001-2008 The Mortgage Market Guide, LLC. All rights reserved
Hang on for a bumpy ride! still no more news on the Famous 4.5% that the government is going to magically do. Who knows, maybe the market will do it on its own.
Tuesday, December 9, 2008
Mortgage Bonds are trading higher, as Stocks trade slightly lower. There are no high-impact economic news reports scheduled for release today, so Bonds will likely take their direction from Stocks.
In other news, it appears a $15 Billion rescue plan for GM, Ford and Chrysler is close to agreement in Congress. Also this morning, news reports indicate that five members of the House Financial Services Committee are sponsoring a bill that would force the SEC to reinstate the uptick rule. Since the removal of the uptick rule in July 2007, market swings have gone wild. So reinstating this rule could help alleviate the excessive volatility in both Stocks and Mortgage Bonds.
In other news, it appears a $15 Billion rescue plan for GM, Ford and Chrysler is close to agreement in Congress. Also this morning, news reports indicate that five members of the House Financial Services Committee are sponsoring a bill that would force the SEC to reinstate the uptick rule. Since the removal of the uptick rule in July 2007, market swings have gone wild. So reinstating this rule could help alleviate the excessive volatility in both Stocks and Mortgage Bonds.
Friday, December 5, 2008
One of my lenders sent this to me today. We don't know a lot about it yet, it is just talk as of now. So, as the whole thing unfolds I will put details out for you.
Other good new, Utah housing rate is 5.98%! yahoo!
FHA and Conventional rates had a worsening today. But, they still look great.
"There has been alot of talk about a proposed plan regarding first time homebuyer purchase money reaching 4.5%. My personal opinion on this is put your money where your mouth is. Hovnanian a large builder requested rates to 3% and were shot down. I understand the plea behind this, if you can stir up enough purchases demand rises, foreclosures potentially go down due to them selling and poof we're back on track."
My market report gave me this news about things happening today.
"The November jobs report was released today showing some of the worst numbers in decades. Non-farm payrolls dropped 533,000 last month and was only the fourth time in 58 years that our economy lost over 500,000 jobs. The unemployment rate ticked up to 6.7%, the highest since October of 1993.
The news sent the Stock markets lower while the Bond markets didn't have much of a reaction. We are currently in a bad economy and only news of a better report would have been a surprise.
So, keep your fingers crossed that we will continue to get better rates.
Other good new, Utah housing rate is 5.98%! yahoo!
FHA and Conventional rates had a worsening today. But, they still look great.
"There has been alot of talk about a proposed plan regarding first time homebuyer purchase money reaching 4.5%. My personal opinion on this is put your money where your mouth is. Hovnanian a large builder requested rates to 3% and were shot down. I understand the plea behind this, if you can stir up enough purchases demand rises, foreclosures potentially go down due to them selling and poof we're back on track."
My market report gave me this news about things happening today.
"The November jobs report was released today showing some of the worst numbers in decades. Non-farm payrolls dropped 533,000 last month and was only the fourth time in 58 years that our economy lost over 500,000 jobs. The unemployment rate ticked up to 6.7%, the highest since October of 1993.
The news sent the Stock markets lower while the Bond markets didn't have much of a reaction. We are currently in a bad economy and only news of a better report would have been a surprise.
So, keep your fingers crossed that we will continue to get better rates.
Thursday, December 4, 2008
Should I Refinance Now?
Now is a Great time to Refinance!! Especially with todays announcement that they are going to try and lower the rate to 4.5%! Can you imagine a 30-Year fixed loan at 4.5%?
The real estate market needs this desperatly to re vitalize the market.
It isnt there yet (a lot has to happen to really make that work) but today we saw conventional as low 5.25% and FHA as low as 5.5%. *OAC.
Your credit, LTV and other factors will help determine what you can get for a loan. A lot goes in to what decides your rate will be, it is not the same for everyone across the board.
So, whether you wait or not will be your choice but just remember, it may never get to the 4.5%. And if what the rate is today works for you, dont wait.
What happened today is the following:
"This morning, the Initial Jobless Claims report came in at its lowest reading since the beginning of November. The four-week average, however, rose to its highest level in 16 years.
In other news, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank both cut interest rates today in an effort to revive their sagging economies. Here in the US, Secretary Treasurer Paulson is considering another plan to help boost the ailing housing markets. The Treasury already announced plans to buy Mortgage-Backed Securities issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and now wants to step up those purchases in a coordinated move to drive home loan rates down to 4.5%.
Currently, Mortgage Bonds are near unchanged levels this morning, as Stocks trade a little lower. Tomorrow, the Labor Department will unveil its Jobs Report for last month--and the markets are already bracing for poor numbers, which may help Bonds improve.
© Copyright 2001-2008 The Mortgage Market Guide, LLC. All rights reserved.
The real estate market needs this desperatly to re vitalize the market.
It isnt there yet (a lot has to happen to really make that work) but today we saw conventional as low 5.25% and FHA as low as 5.5%. *OAC.
Your credit, LTV and other factors will help determine what you can get for a loan. A lot goes in to what decides your rate will be, it is not the same for everyone across the board.
So, whether you wait or not will be your choice but just remember, it may never get to the 4.5%. And if what the rate is today works for you, dont wait.
What happened today is the following:
"This morning, the Initial Jobless Claims report came in at its lowest reading since the beginning of November. The four-week average, however, rose to its highest level in 16 years.
In other news, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank both cut interest rates today in an effort to revive their sagging economies. Here in the US, Secretary Treasurer Paulson is considering another plan to help boost the ailing housing markets. The Treasury already announced plans to buy Mortgage-Backed Securities issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and now wants to step up those purchases in a coordinated move to drive home loan rates down to 4.5%.
Currently, Mortgage Bonds are near unchanged levels this morning, as Stocks trade a little lower. Tomorrow, the Labor Department will unveil its Jobs Report for last month--and the markets are already bracing for poor numbers, which may help Bonds improve.
© Copyright 2001-2008 The Mortgage Market Guide, LLC. All rights reserved.
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